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Working papers :

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 Parenthood remains a major driver of economic inequality between men and women, yet little is known about how differences in infant health at birth shape this gap. This paper examines whether early-life health endowments — specifically low birth weight and preterm birth — affect mothers’ long-term earnings trajectories and intra-household income composition. Using linked Canadian administrative data covering all births from 2006 to 2015 and annual family tax files, I estimate the causal impact of poor infant health with a matched event study design. The results show that mothers of infants in poor health earn about 1.6% less one year after birth, rising to over 3.5% by year seven, mainly due to increased labor force exit. Affected mothers are 3.4% less likely to contribute at least 40% of household income six years after birth, widening intra-household inequality. While partners experience similar short-term earnings effects, these fade in the longer term, highlighting how the burden of poor infant health increasingly falls on mothers. Importantly, this asymmetry is not explained by differences in couple dissolution patterns. Mediation analysis suggests that caregiving demands linked to childhood health vulnerabilities — rather than declines in mothers’ own health — are the dominant channel. Variation across provinces further suggests that generous family policies, such as Quebec’s parental leave program, mitigate the penalty only in the short term. These findings highlight how improving infant health at birth can complement family policies aimed at closing the gender earnings gap.

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This paper examines the effects of prenatal exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on birth outcomes in a low-pollution setting. Using linked administrative data on births and air quality in Quebec (2008-2015), we compare infants exposed to different pollution levels within the same neighbourhoods and time periods to account for socioeconomic and seasonal differences. We find no significant effects at the population level, but exposure increases the risk of low birth weight and preterm birth among female infants and children of less-educated mothers. These findings suggest that even in low-exposure environments, current air quality standards may not sufficiently protect vulnerable populations. Strengthening pollution advisories for pregnant women and refining regional air quality policies could help mitigate these risks.

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​This paper shows that poor health at birth can act as a barrier to upward economic mobility, reinforcing inequality across generations. Using linked administrative data for two Canadian birth cohorts, we find that mothers born with low birth weight (LBW) are significantly more likely to have LBW children. Sibling comparisons reveal that LBW reduces the probability of surpassing parental income rank by 4 percent. We show that ongoing childhood health shocks partly—but not fully—explain this effect, suggesting both direct and indirect pathways. Our findings highlight how policies targeting prenatal and early-life health could help break persistent cycles of disadvantage.

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 Selected Work in progress:

​The impact of childhood social skills and self-control training on social mobility (joint with Yann Algan, Sylvana Côté, and Maripier Isabelle)

We investigate whether an early childhood intervention targeting disruptive boys in Montreal altered their long-term economic trajectories. The Montreal Longitudinal Experimental Study (MLES) began in the early 1980s and provided intensive support, combining small-group skills training at school with individualized family support at home. What makes this project unique is the data: using administrative tax records, we follow these boys and their parents for more than three decades, allowing us to trace intergenerational outcomes with unusual precision. We compare adult income outcomes of participants with those of a randomly assigned control group, focusing on whether the program improved boys’ expected earnings conditional on parental income. We find that untreated disruptive boys systematically underperform relative to expectations based on parental background, while treated boys close much of this gap. The intervention reduced the risk of downward mobility, increased the chances of rising out of low-income backgrounds, and preserved advantages for those from higher-income families. These findings underscore the significance of long-term data from a randomized intervention in revealing the impact of early investments on breaking cycles of disadvantage and promoting intergenerational economic mobility.

 

Impact of ADHD medication in early childhood on education and mental health trajectory (with Arthur Chatton, and Sylvana Côté)


 

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©2025 by Abdel-Hamid Bello. 

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